(EXPANDED FROM 2/16/2022)
The Beetle was such a hot commodity in 1959 that total Volkswagen registrations almost topped 120,000 units. That may have been tiny by Detroit standards, but back then it was unprecedented for an imported brand.
Even so, the big question was how would Volkswagen fare against Detroit’s armada of new compacts in 1960. This led Road & Track magazine to speculate about whether VW would come out with a more modern design.
A non-bylined article dismissed rumors about a larger VW but suggested that “a logical plan” would be to turn the Karmann Ghia into a five-passenger sedan. Note that R&T referred to the 2+2 coupe and convertible as the Ghia-Karmann, or G-K.
Creating a five-passenger sedan would “require a few new stampings in the rear cab area,” R&T stated. “The current beetle bodies would continue and the only change on the production lines would be that an occasional G-K sedan body would be dropped on, as with G-K coupes” (1959, p. 42).
Karmann Ghia wasn’t designed for high volume
Road & Track’s logic may have made sense at first glance, but it had a number of problems. For example, the Karmann Ghia was apparently not designed for the high-volume production. That would have been required to replace the Beetle.
A 1964 print ad noted that the Karmann Ghia’s “(f)enders, hoods and door frames are welded and shaped and smoothed by hand.” Wikipedia noted that this was a “time-consuming process” that stood in contrast to “the Beetle’s machine-welded body with bolt-on fenders” (2022a).
R&T didn’t get the memo because it insisted that “the G-K coupes are completely and adequately tooled for low-cost, high-volume production.” Indeed, the magazine suggested that the sedan could initially be priced similarly to the existing 2+2 coupe, which was roughly $800 above the Beetle in the early-60s. If demand for the Beetle “fell off, they could reduce the price of the G-K models to restore demand and keep their factories and people working full time” (1959, p. 42).
R&T predicts other changes that did not happen
R&T went on to itemize a variety of mechanical improvements that would be made in 1960. The magazine concluded that “we are fairly sure of our basic predictions — a new body, more power, improved transmission and better brakes” (1959, p. 42).
R&T’s story ended up giving its readers false hopes. VW did introduce a new high-end family car in 1961, the Type 3. That car had a much boxier body than the Karmann Ghia. However, it didn’t officially come to the U.S. until 1966 (Wikipedia, 2022b). The Type 3 fastback ended up selling for around $100 less than the Karmann Ghia coupe.
Nineteen-sixty-six was the same year that the base VW engine finally saw a displacement increase from around 1,200 to 1,300 cc (Gunnell, 2004).
Karmann Ghia was also too swoopy for an economy car
In retrospect, R&T’s predictions sound more like a gearhead’s wish list than industry-savvy punditry. Even if you ignore the production complexities of the Karmann Ghia, there was still an 800-pound gorilla sitting in the middle of the living room: The 2+2’s body was too swoopy to translate very well into a sedan. To see what I mean, take a close look at the above photo.
The thick fenders and doors ate into front-seat shoulder room. Meanwhile, the side windows tilted inward to the degree that it could have constrained how much taller the roofline could have been made to increase headroom. It’s also hard to see how the rear seat could have been given adequate headroom without pushing the C-pillar so far back that it would have looked too awkward given the rest of the car’s proportions.
All in all, this is a good example of how car-buff magazines didn’t always have a very good track record when it came to predicting future products.
NOTES:
This story was originally posted on Feb. 16, 2022 and expanded on Dec. 17, 2025. Specifications and sales figures from Gunnell (2004).
Share your reactions to this post with a comment below or a note to the editor.
RE:SOURCES
- Gunnell, John; ; 2004. Standard Catalog of Volkswagen, 1946-2004. KP Books, Iola, WI.
- Road & Track; 1959. “Why Not A Ghia-Karmann Sedan?” May issue: pp. 42-43.
- Wikipedia; 2022a. “Volkswagen Karmann Ghia.” Page last modified Feb. 13.
- ——; 2022b. “Volkswagen Type 3.” Page last modified Feb. 13.
ADVERTISING & BROCHURES
- autohistorypreservationsociety.org: Volkswagen Karmann Ghia (1964)
That reminds me of this article of Curbside Classic showing old scans from the defunct Road Test magazine showing drawing previews of the 1977 models.
https://www.curbsideclassic.com/vintage-reviews/229964/
On a off-topic sidenote, Hemmings blog posted this article about VW EA-48 prototype, a FWD car who could have come before the Austin Mini. https://www.hemmings.com/stories/2016/07/29/what-if-volkswagen-built-the-first-mini-vws-ea-48-prototype
Stรฉphane, thank you for the links. As an FYI, I do not post major portions of articles originally published in other magazines because of copyright law. I suppose I could ask for permission to reprint, but it can be a hassle and there is no guarantee that they would say yes (at least without compensation). I don’t have a budget for that and would rather focus my limited time writing original content.
Stephane, that was an awsome link. Is there a book or online companion to the museum? It seems to be a treasure trove of prototupes. As an aside, when did the prototype shop run out of RLM gray?
Unfortunaly, I don’t know if there’s a book or online companion to the museum and as I wish I knew when they ran out of RLM gray.
Stรฉphane, the car to the right of the EA48 looks like a sedan with similarities to the Karmann Ghia. The EA47-12 carried over basic styling cues such as a rounded front end and dog-leg side sculpting but does not appear to share any sheetmetal. The license plate says “1955,” which was the same year that the Karmann Ghia was introduced.
Motor Authority says that the bodywork was from Ghia but it looks like the pressings were simplified, presumably to cut production costs.
The above-linked Motor Authority article also has a photo of a prototype called the EA97. It looks like a somewhat shrunken Type 3. The AE97 was slated for a 1960 introduction, so this was the car that Road & Track was likely hearing about.
“Road & Track” magazine was very much owned and managed by the great (in my opinion) John R. Bond. His editorial and sales staff were dedicated and enthusiastic. Bond and his staff did speculate on the latest technologies and trends, especially in the 1960s, as did “Sports Car Illustrated”, later known as “Car & Driver”. The contributing editors of both publications occasionally went out on a limb, but it is not outlandish to believe that VW decided that building a four-door Karmen-Ghia was not as good as developing the 411-412 series of cars. At the same time, B.M.W. was introducing its new series sedans in Germany, which were new benchmark sedans for Europe and Peugeot was launching its 404 sedans. Heady times in the European car markets !
VW did make a Karmann Ghia based on the Type 3 chassis known as the Type34, and it was their most luxurious, flossiest model. You could only bring one here via the greymarket. Rumors about this must be what inspired R&T.
(link to The Samba) https://www.thesamba.com/vw/archives/info/historyt34.php
I’m guessing someone saw or heard about a Type 3 prototype – in particular the notchback EA97 of 1960 – and thought it was coming to the US, which as you pointed out didn’t happen until a few years later. OTOH the new 40-horse engine did come here for 1961, and the Type 3 had an upgraded engine when it debuted in Europe as well.